Thursday 24th November 2022

How to profit from Penalties at the World Cup…

I’ve got a great World Cup stat to tell you about today…

• This is a free nugget for you, from my members-only World Cup daily service…

At half time in the Argentina-Saudi Arabia match this week, Roy Keane had a typically feisty on-air argument with Graeme Souness. Debating the merits of the penalty kick awarded to Argentina by VAR…

Keane went on to say that we could see a record number of penalties awarded at this World Cup - and he wasn’t joking…

I’ve been tracking the penalties and prices every day…

This betting angle has given 87% ROI so far…

After three of yesterday’s four games saw a penalty taken, I went through the numbers last night:

• 8 of the 12 games played so far at Qatar 2022 have paid out on a Penalty in the Match (67%)

The game-by-game odds from William Hill’s Penalty Taken market show that this is proving to be a profitable betting angle…

Qatar v Ecuador - 9/4 (3.25)
England v Iran - 9/4 (3.25)
USA v Wales - 9/4 (3.25)
Argentina v Saudi Arabia - 13/8 (2.63)
Mexico v Poland - 7/4 (2.75)
Germany v Japan- 13/10 (2.3)
Spain v Costa Rica - 11/8 (2.38)
Belgium v Canada - 13/8 (2.63)

Backing the penalty in all 12 games, to level 1-point stakes, those results have produced:

10.44 pts profit
87% ROI

With VAR getting involved frequently (and often clumsily), and some keen referees about - this trend could continue today, and as the tournament progresses…

The good news is, the prices for today’s four fixtures are much the same as those listed above, at around 2/1 (3.0) or just under, for each game.

The likes of Betfred, Skybet, William Hill, Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook, Unibet, Boylesports, and Bet365, all have Penalty markets.

Sing it with me: V-A-R… V-A-R… V-A-R…!

To get ALL My daily analysis and advice on the World Cup, click here to join my exclusive DAILY email service right now…

Today’s kick-off times are 10am, 1pm, 4pm, and 7pm. And the same again tomorrow and over the weekend…

There are 52 games still to come…

World Cup DAILY Service – get instant access here >>

• The latest members-only World Cup bets & advice can be found in the Email Archive on the website, which you’ll get password access to as soon as you join…

Enjoy the World Cup…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues Extra