Friday 18th November 2022

In Across the Leagues EXTRA today:

• The profile of a Golden Ball winner…
• Player of the Tournament stats…
• I’ve got one man in mind…

World Cup: How to find the Golden Ball winner…

There are just two days to go until kick-off in Qatar. Today I’m focusing on the World Cup Golden Ball market…

FIFA Golden Ball Award…

The official FIFA Golden Ball Award (‘Player of the Tournament’) is an intriguing market, with the Qatar 2022 prices ranging from 8/1 to 300/1.

Using the results from all the previous 21 World Cups, I’ve compiled the common characteristics that give us the criteria for finding the Golden Ball winner.

• The Golden Ball is the award given for the World Cup Player of the Tournament. A shortlist of players is drawn up by the FIFA technical committee, with the winner voted for by members of the media

Let’s start with a look at the most recent winners. Since the tournament moved to a 32-team, 64-game format in 1998…

Golden Ball winners – last 6 World Cups:

2018  
LUKA MODRIC (Croatia) – Midfielder
Goals: 2
Team reached: Final (runner-up)

2014  
LIONEL MESSI (Argentina) – Striker
Goals: 4
Team reached: Final (runner-up)

2010  
DIEGO FORLAN (Uruguay) – Striker
Goals: 5 (joint-top)
Team reached: Semi Final

2006
ZINEDINE ZIDANE (France) - Midfielder
Goals: 3
Team reached: Final (runner-up)

2002
OLIVER KAHN (Germany) - Goalkeeper
Goals: n/a (became first goalkeeper to keep 5 clean sheets at a World Cup)
Team reached: Final (runner-up)

1998
RONALDO (Brazil) - Striker
Goals: 4
Team reached: Final (runner-up)

The right profile…

Some significant trends emerge from the list of past winners. Including all 21 previous World Cups in the data, here’s the profile of a Golden Ball winner…

We’re looking for a player that ticks as many of these boxes as possible:

• STRIKERS & MIDFIELDERS – 13 of 21 winners have been Strikers (61.9%), 6 Midfielders (28.6%), one Defender (4.8%), one Goalkeeper (4.8%)

• REACH THE FINAL – 5 of the last 6 Golden Ball winners played for a team that made it to the final. Overall, 18 of the 21 Golden Ball winners (86%) made it to the final (9 winning the World Cup, 9 runner-up). However, none of the last 6, and just one of the last 9 Golden Ball winners have actually won the World Cup (Romario & Brazil in 1994)
• SEMI FINALS – Every Golden Ball winner in the history of the World Cup played for a team that reached at least the semi finals (100%)
• GOALS – Each of the last 11 Golden Ball winners scored at least 2 goals in the tournament (excluding goalkeeper Oliver Kahn – who kept a record number of clean sheets)

The ‘fine wine’ theory…

History tells us that the Golden Ball award is highly likely to go to an attacking player, who gets to at least the semi finals.

And from the list of recent winners, one thing that stands out for me is this:

• 2 of the last 4 Golden Ball trophies have gone to creative, ball-playing midfielders…

The creative midfielders in question being Luka Modric of Croatia, and Zinedine Zidane of France. Zidane is long-retired. While Modric – now age 37 – is still going strong. He’s 66/1 in general to turn on the magic again, with Betway going 100/1. However, it’s worth pointing out here that no player has ever won the Golden Ball twice.

Both Modric and Zidane were in their thirties when they won the Golden Ball – age 32 and 34, respectively…

If there’s anything in that ‘fine wine’ theory – and I think there could be, when it comes to genuinely world-class players ageing well. Then it could pay to look out for a 30-something star to shine at the World Cup 2022…

I’ve got one man in mind, and he’s available at attractive odds, too…

The first tournament picks are waiting for you now…

You can get my first recommended bets of the tournament – including two 50/1 shots, and my Golden Ball pick. By signing up to my exclusive DAILY World Cup 2022 Service, right now…

World Cup DAILY Service – get instant access here >>

• The latest members-only World Cup bets & advice can be found in the Email Archive on the website, which you’ll get password access to as soon as you join…

Enjoy the World Cup…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues Extra