Thursday 17th November 2022

In Across the Leagues today:

• Top Scorer stats…
• Get your hands on this 50/1 shot today…
• Join my exclusive DAILY World Cup Service…

World Cup: Top Scorers – the magic number…

When it comes to finding the Top Scorer at a World Cup, the magic number is six goals…

Six goals (or less) have been enough to land the prize in 10 of the last 11 World Cups.

Only once since 1978 has the winning Top Scorer total gone over six goals – with exactly 6.0 the average in the modern 32-team, 64-match format era, since 1998.

Here are the Top Scorer stats from the last six World Cups:

• Note: the FIFA Golden Boot Award goes to the top scoring player at the World Cup, decided by Most Assists in the event of a tie. Skybet’s market is called Golden Boot, and settled as such. Most other bookmakers have the standard Top Goalscorer market (eg. paying out on a Dead Heat in the event of a tie)

As well as the ‘six-goal rule,’ a couple of other key factors stand out:

• 3 of the last 6 World Cup winning nations produced the Top Scorer (or joint-Top Scorer)

• 5 of the last 6 Golden Boot winners made it to the semi final stages. James Rodriguez & Colombia made the quarter finals in 2014

What are we looking for?

World Cup history says Golden Boot contenders need five goals at least, with six the average to take the prize.

Past results also show that Top Scorer is most likely to come from a team that reaches the semi finals or final.

A surprise winner isn’t out of the question – see Davor Suker for Croatia in 2006, or James Rodriguez for Colombia in 2014. But the player will likely need to come from a team that makes the quarter finals or beyond. That gives a player at least five games to get their goals (three games in the Group stage, then Round of 16 and Quarter Final…).

At the risk of stating the obvious, we are looking for attacking players – out-and-out strikers or attacking midfielders. Penalty takers and free kick takers are worth looking out for, too.

Top Scorer betting…

Here’s how the top of the World Cup 2022 Top Goalscorer market looks today, before a ball is kicked:

Source: Oddschecker

40/1+ bar

• Standard Each Way terms: 1/4 odds 1-4 places 

Reasons to take on the favourites…

It’s hard to argue with the quality of the players at the top of that betting list. But as with yesterday’s point regarding not backing the favourites in the Group Winner market – I’m keen to note that it’s rarely as simple as taking the top names on paper…

Harry Kane and Kylian Mbappe are the joint-favourites for Qatar 2022, at around 8/1 each…

• Kane won the Golden Boot at Russia 2018. No player has ever won the award at two World Cups in a row

• Mbappe is one of France’s star names. France are the reigning champions. And as we noted yesterday: the holders have gone out in the Group stage at each of the last three World Cups

We can continue to pick holes and chip away at that list of top-scorer favourites…

• We all know how good Lionel Messi (Argentina) and Cristiano Ronaldo (Portugal) have been over the years. But both Messi and Ronaldo have never actually scored a goal at the Knockout stage of a World Cup

While we’re at it, another thing to consider before backing a short-price contender in this market is the ‘share the goals around’ factor:

• For example, as well as Mbappe up front, France have also got Karim Benzema and Antoine Griezmann – to name just two. Benzema is the current Ballon d’Or winner, and finished joint-3rd top-scorer at Euro 2020. Griezmann was joint-2nd top-scorer at the last World Cup 

There’s usually one…

Major International tournaments, namely the European Championships and the World Cup, often tend to produce a relatively unfancied player who makes his mark in the Golden Boot race…

With four Each Way places up for grabs (and bookies paying 1/4 odds for a place), it can certainly pay to keep an eye out for a lively outsider to get among the goals…

For example:

• At Euro 2020, Patrik Schick of the Czech Republic weighed in with 5 goals – putting him joint-top of the chart with Cristiano Ronaldo, who won the award by way of having provided more Assists. (Czech Republic made the quarter finals)

• At World Cup 2018, Denis Cheryshev of Russia finished joint-2nd with 4 goals. (Russia reached the quarter finals)

• At World Cup 2014, as noted above, James Rodriguez of Colombia won the Golden Boot with 6 goals. (Colombia were quarter-finalists)

• At World Cup 2010, Diego Forlan of Uruguay was joint-top scorer with 5 goals. (Uruguay reached the semi finals)

• At the World Cup 1998, as stated above, Davor Suker of Croatia won the Golden Boot with 6 goals. (Croatia made the semi finals)

Get your hands on this 50/1 shot today…

Those examples give us plenty of reason to go after a big price Each Way shot or two at the World Cup 2022…

I’ve got one such big-odds contender waiting for you today…

You can get my first recommended bet of the tournament – with odds of 50/1 and 40/1 available – by signing up to my exclusive DAILY World Cup 2022 Service, right now…

World Cup DAILY Service – get instant access here >>

• That Top Scorer bet and all of this week’s members-only advice can be found in the Email Archive on our website, which you’ll get password access to as soon as you join…

Enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues Extra