Wednesday 15th March 2023

In Across the Leagues today:

• Real Madrid v Liverpool, 8pm…
• Multi Scorers…
• Brighton v Crystal Palace, 7.30pm…

Champions League tonight: magic boots at 100/1…

Manchester City kept our 419/1 UEFA mega-acca very much alive last night. With a 7-0 (SEVEN-nil) win to emphatically book their place in the Champions League quarter finals.

On Thursday evening, we’ll be looking for Roma to progress in the Europa League (2-0 up on Real Sociedad). And Villarreal to get past Anderlecht in the Europa Conference League (1-1 on aggregate after the away leg).

Goal machine…

Erling Haaland accounted for FIVE of those seven Man City goals last night. Further bolstering his already-ridiculous scoring record in UEFA’s flagship club competition:

• Age just 22, Haaland has racked up 33 goals from a total of just 26 Champions League appearances

Tuesday’s five-goal salvo catapulted the Norwegian goal muncher to the top of this season’s Champions League scoring charts. Overtaking two of the men who will be in action tonight…

The bookies now make Haaland 1/10 (1.1) to end the season as Champions League Top Goalscorer. With Real Madrid’s Vinicius Junior at 6/1. And Liverpool’s Mo Salah at 17/1 at best…

Champions League Top Scorers 2022/23:

Real Madrid v Liverpool tonight…

After a 2-5 humbling by Real at Anfield last month, Liverpool go to Madrid tonight needing to score at least three goals – just to level the tie and force Extra Time…

A 3-0 away win in Normal Time is 33/1 with the likes of William Hill, Ladbrokes & Coral. And that would be some achievement, considering it would need Liverpool to keep a Clean Sheet. Something they’ve struggled with time and time again this season – let alone when going to the home of the current Champions League holders.

Talking of potential long-shot/ ‘fans only’ prices for tonight’s big game, Liverpool To Qualify is a best-price 16/1 (Skybet, Unibet)…

Jurgen Klopp’s team do of course have some classic comeback experience, having turned over a 3-0 1st-Leg deficit against another Spanish giant, beating Barcelona 4-0 in 2019. Although perhaps crucially, that big turnaround came at home in front of the Liverpool faithful. Tonight, they’re the away team…

Mo Salah might need to have his magic boots on, then, and emulate some of Haaland’s goal-scoring brilliance from last night…

Magic Boots at 100/1...

Vinicius Junior and last season’s Champions League top scorer Karim Benzema both bagged a brace in the 1st Leg at Anfield. Mo Salah got on the score-sheet for the Reds, along with Darwin Nunez.

• Salah has scored 2 of Liverpool’s last 3 goals against Madrid, going back to April 2021

• Salah has scored in each of his last 6 Champions League appearances

• Vinicius Junior has scored in 5 out of 6 Champions League starts this season

In the Anytime Scorer market for tonight’s game, Benzema is the 11/10 (2.1) favourite.

Salah is a top price of 9/4 (3.25) at Skybet, and 2/1 (3.0) at William Hill.

Vinicius Junior is as big as 5/2 (3.5) with Betfred, BetVictor and Betway. That price could possibly be because Vini Jr is on a yellow card, and may not play the whole game with Madrid sitting pretty on the scoreboard. If he gets booked, he’ll miss the next Champions League game. Incidentally, that option – Vinicius Junior to get a Card – is 4/1 (5.0) with Unibet, 10Bet & LiveScoreBet.

Back to the Scorer markets, Mo Salah – and the ‘magic boots’ comment…

Another potential wide-eyed Liverpool bet could be Salah to Score 2+ Goals. Skybet have the biggest quote there, with Mo at 16/1 in their ‘Multi Scorers’ list.

Or how about 100/1 for the Egyptian King to take home the match ball, and bag a Hat-Trick? Stranger things have happened…

That 100/1 price is also with Skybet. While BetVictor, Ladbrokes & Coral are next best, offering 80/1 for Mo to score a Hat-Trick.

• Bet advice: a main bet (eg. 1 point) on Salah to score Anytime, at the best 2/1+ prices if you can get them. With two smaller (eg. 0.5pt) outside bets on the big-odds, 2+ Goals and Hat-Trick options. The thinking being, one goal from Salah would result in an overall profit from those 3 bets. With a brace or better offering tasty rewards on the speculative Multi Scorer options…

Brighton v Crystal Palace tonight…

There are also a couple of Premier League fixtures taking place this evening. The so-called ‘M23 derby’ between Brighton and Palace is one to consider from a history-book perspective. With an unmistakable trend for 1-1 draws between these two clubs:

Brighton v Crystal Palace – Recent Meetings:

The 1-1 Correct Score paid out when these two sides met at Selhurst Park just last month. That score-line is priced at 8/1 today (William Hill, Betfred, Sporting Index Fixed Odds).

A stats-based selection I’m more confident in as a recommended bet for tonight’s game at the Amex Stadium is Brighton -3 Corner Handicap at around Even Money (2.0)…

• Brighton have won the Most Corners in 6 of their last 7 meetings with Palace. And more significantly in terms of it being recent form, the Seagulls have won the Corners Match Bet in 100% of home Premier League games this season (12 out of 12)

• The home v away Head-2-Head stats comparison on our website shows that Brighton have covered the -3 Corner Handicap in 9 of those 12 home games (75%), including 4 of the last 5 at the Amex

Brighton -3 Corner Handicap pays out if they win 4+ corners more than Crystal Palace.

TODAY’S PICKS

See above for full details

Real Madrid v Liverpool
Champions League, 8pm – BT Sport

• Anytime Scorer: Mo Salah – best price 9/4 (3.25) Skybet, 2/1 (3.0) William Hill

Multi Scorers markets:

• To Score 2+ Goals: Mo Salah – best price 16/1 Skybet, 11/1 Betfred, BetVictor, Ladbrokes, Coral

• To Score a Hat-Trick: Mo Salah – best price 100/1 Skybet, 80/1 BetVictor, Ladbrokes, Coral

Brighton v Crystal Palace
Premier League, 7.30pm

• Brighton -3 Corner Handicap @ 11/10 (2.1) Boylesports, 21/20 (2.05) Sporting Index Fixed Odds (‘-3.5 Corner Handicap’), Evens (2.0) Bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, BetVictor, 19/20 (1.95) Betway, 10/11 (1.91) William Hill, Unibet

I’ll be back on Friday with a Weekend Preview.

P.S
Want to get in touch? You can email me direct at: oliver@acrosstheleagues.co.uk

Enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues