Thursday 21st January 2021
In Across the Leagues today:
After tonight’s Liverpool v Burnley game, half the teams in the Premier League will have reached the 19-game midway point in the season.
The other 10 sides are all only one, two, or three matches off that marker, too.
In terms of the Outright markets, last season’s Top Goalscorer, Jamie Vardy, is up there again. The Leicester man has 11 goals so far in 2020/21, two off the top spot.
An 18/1 Each Way selection in our ante post preview this season, Vardy is currently trading at around 5/1.
And his Foxes team are flying high in the league table, too…
Could Leicester ‘do a Leicester’?
Ever since Brendan Rodgers’ side beat Chelsea 2-0 on Tuesday night, two bets have been trending heavily on Oddschecker.
One of them is Chelsea’s Frank Lampard to be the Next Premier League Manager to Leave. The other is Leicester to win the Premier League…
Here’s how the top of the table looks right now:
And here’s how the top of 2020/21 Premier League Winner betting looks, at Paddy Power:
Is it now time to ask, could Leicester ‘do a Leicester?’
It’s a question we first brought up on 14th December, when the King Power side were one point off the top spot, with 12 games played – and 33/1 in the Outright Winner betting.
The Foxes are now exactly halfway through their season (19 games). And they have actually got a point more to their name than in 2015/16, when they famously won the league as 5,000/1 rank outsiders.
Brendan Rodgers’ outfit started the current 2020/21 campaign as 200/1 shots.
After this week’s 2-0 win over Chelsea, they were trending at 20/1. With Man Utd and Man City both winning the next evening, that price was pushed back out somewhat, to 25/1.
With no round of Premier League games until next week, we can expect that price to sit where it is for a few days now. And I’ll be using that time to run some calculations, and see if I can give you a mathematically-backed answer to the question of value:
As it stands, is Leicester at 25/1 a bandwagon bet, being jumped on by all and sundry?
Or is the 25/1 a bargain that’s there for the taking?
I’d very much like to know your opinion, too…
Email me at: firstname.lastname@example.org
Across the Leagues member Paul wrote in with his take on the topsy-turvy 2020/21 season:
“I've changed my strategy and by using your data on across the leagues I'll be focusing on Man City (wins to nil), Man U away (double chance), both Milan teams & Sporting Lisbon for the rest of the season. I think Italy looks too close to call for a win yet however I'll be investing in Man City for the EPL, I already have an each way on Man U which should wash its face if Man U are second. I think Liverpool are floundering a bit…”
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In Wednesday’s email we looked at the Copa del Rey in Spain.
The final two ties of the Round of 32 take place this evening:
Ibiza v Atheltic Bilbao (7pm)
Cornella v Barcelona (8pm)
Last night saw a big upset, with third-tier outfit Alcoyano coming from behind, and eventually knocking out Real Madrid, 2-1 in extra time.
In the To Qualify betting, Alcoyano were 8/1 outsiders.
With 14 of the 16 ties played, five have seen the underdog beat a top-flight La Liga opponent.
And remember, in these early rounds of the Copa del Rey, the lower-league side get to play at home…
Tonight’s markets have La Liga clubs Bilbao and Barcelona as the odds-on favourites, at 4/9 (1.44) and 1/10 (1.1) respectively in the To Qualify market.
For cup romantics and upset hunters, Ibiza are 7/4 (2.75) to go through. And Cornella are a best price 15/2 (8.5) with Paddy Power.
Talking of cups, I’ll be back on Friday afternoon with your Weekend Preview – with the FA Cup 4th round in our sights…
See you tomorrow.
Enjoy the football…