Friday 19th May 2023

In Across the Leagues today:

• Fulham v Crystal Palace…
• Brighton v Southampton…
• Wolves v Everton… 

Weekend Picks – Corners, Cards, and Goals…

The Playoffs never fail to entertain…

Unfortunately, a 0-4 come-from-behind victory and a penalty shootout isn’t quite so entertaining when you’re on the receiving end of it.

That was the case last night, with one leg of our big-odds Playoff combo, Peterborough, overturned by Sheffield Wednesday in a crazy night at Hillsborough.

No Playoff treble glory for us this spring, then. But as cup-final season approaches, we do have a couple of tasty morsels in the ante-post pantry…

Coventry City have already proved profitable, securing a Top 6 Finish at odds of 5/1 – 4/1. The Sky Blues beat Middlesbrough in the Playoff semi-finals this week, booking a place at Wembley – with our 22/1 or 20/1 Promotion bet (placed in March) now trading at just 11/10 (2.1). Mark Robins’ side will take on Luton Town in the Championship Playoff final next Saturday (27th May).

Meanwhile, in Europe…

One part of our self-styled 2022/23 UEFA cup mega-acca is still live & kicking…

Back in September, I put up three teams for the European cups this season: Man City at 5/2 in the Champions League, Roma at 14/1 in the Europa League, and Villarreal at 7/1 for the Europa Conference League. We lost Villarreal a while back – but the other two have made it to their respective finals…

• Man City will take on Inter Milan in the Champions League final in Istanbul on Saturday 10th June

And Jose ‘park the bus’ Mourinho got the job done with Roma last night; his side protecting a 1-0 aggregate lead with a 0-0 draw at Bayer Leverkusen. It was never in any doubt…

• Roma will take on Sevilla in the Europa League final in Budapest on Wednesday 31st May

At the best ante-post prices, we have the Man City & Roma double at 51.5/1, as one small-stakes double from our original Trixie. A bet that is today trading at around 5/4 (2.25).

Targeting the Finals…

Plenty to look forward to already then, with the finals approaching…

Coventry in the Championship Playoff final…

That Man City & Roma double in the Champions League & Europa League finals…

And we’ll also be loading up on the stats and taking aim at a few Bet Builders for some of the big finals…

There will be the League One & League Two Playoff finals at Wembley to consider.

And the small matter of the FA Cup final between Man City and Man Utd…

And remember (as if we could forget)… in the World Cup final, we hit the bullseye with a 45/1 Bet Builder. The biggest games tend to produce the biggest moments…

Stay tuned!

Premier League Stats Picks…

This weekend I’m focusing on the Premier League stats on our website. With two rounds to go plus a few games in hand to be sorted out, we have a packed formbook to work with. Containing some strong trends…

• Today’s ATL Extra – PL Predictor email includes a high-goals recommendation for Newcastle United v Leicester City. And a 45/1 acca across the Match Result and Goals market. Note: if ‘feelings’ count for anything – I’ve got the hint of a ‘good feeling’ about that acca… check it out here

Here are some standout stats for you:

Fulham v Crystal Palace – Goals…

Premier League, Saturday 3pm

It should be all smiles at Craven Cottage for Fulham’s last home game of the campaign. A Top 10 finish is assured for Marco Silva’s team, and top scorer Aleksandar Mitrovic returned from suspension with the final goal in a 2-0 win at Southampton last weekend. Each of Mitrovic’s last three Premier League strikes have paid out as the Last Goalscorer.

Palace should be in good spirits and up for an open game, too. Since Roy Hodgson returned to fend off the threat of relegation, Palace have won five out of eight games – including 1-5 and 4-3 score-lines.

Fulham won the reverse fixture, 3-0 – with Mitrovic last on the score-sheet…

• 4 of Fulham’s last 5 home games have gone Over 2.5 Goals

Brighton v Southampton – Corners…

Premier League, Sunday 2pm

Brighton should also be playing in a celebratory atmosphere this weekend – Sunday’s game at the Amex gives the home fans the chance to applaud their boys on their own patch, after what’s been a very impressive season. Before champions elect Man City visit next week…

There will be no celebrations for Southampton. The Saints are already relegated.

The hosts can stamp their dominance on proceedings here, with the possibility of another hefty Corners score:

• Brighton have won the Most Corners in 15 of their 17 home league games this season (88%)

• Southampton have won the Corners Match Bet in just 4 of 18 away games (22%)

Brighton are short odds-on for the Most Corners/ Corners Match Bet here, at 1/5 (1.2) at best – and also not much bigger than that price to win the game. The Seagulls have shown a penchant for racking up big corners tally this term, and at bigger prices, the Brighton -4 Corner Handicap is a stats-pick with some decent ammo behind it…

Roberto De Zerbi’s team have landed the -4 Corner Handicap in four of their last nine at the Amex. Winning 5+ corners more than Liverpool (7-1), Fulham (10-2), Brentford (14-0), and most recently, Everton (15-1).

Opponents have covered a -4 Corner Handicap in three of Southampton’s last five games.

Wolves v Everton – Cards…

Premier League, Saturday 3pm

Wolves go into their final home game knowing they are safely clear of relegation. Everton are very much in the fight, just one point above the drop-zone with two games to go…

The earlier meeting at Goodison Park between these sides produced a total of seven yellow cards (70 Booking Points). Bet365 are betting Under/ Over 4.5 Cards for Saturday’s game – one of just two Premier League fixtures with that higher-than-average 4.5 line.

That Over 4.5 Cards option is 11/10 (2.1) with Bet365, and 21/20 (2.05) with Betway. Given our recent record for finding Player Card candidates, I’m opting for one strong contender from each team:

• Ruben Neves is Wolves’ most-booked player this season, and only two other men in the Premier League can beat his tally of 11 yellows. The Portuguese midfielder was also booked in that reverse fixture at Everton

• Abdoulaye Doucoure has been carded in 6 out of 13 starts since Sean Dyche took over at Everton: 5 yellows, and a straight red. The French midfielder was booked at Brighton last time out on the road

Most Wolves yellow cards 2022/23:

• Log-in to view all our bet-specific stats for 17 leagues at: www.acrosstheleagues.co.uk

TODAY’S PICKS

See above for full details

Fulham v Crystal Palace

• Over 2.5 Goals @ 10/11 (1.91) Bet365, William Hill, Betfred, Ladbrokes, Coral, Betway, BetVictor, SpreadEx

• Anytime Scorer: Aleksandar Mitrovic @ 11/8 (2.38) Bet365, William Hill, 11/10 (2.1) general

Brighton v Southampton

• Brighton -4 Corner Handicap @ 13/10 (2.3) Boylesports, Sporting Index Fixed Odds (‘-4.5 Corner Handicap’), 11/10 (2.1) BetVictor, 21/20 (2.05) Bet365, Evens (2.0) Unibet, BetUK, 10/11 (1.91) William Hill, 5/6 (1.83) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook

Wolves v Everton

• Player to be Carded: Ruben Neves @ 7/2 (4.5) Skybet, 16/5 (4.2) William Hill, 29/10 (3.9) Unibet, 14/5 (3.8) Betway, 11/5 (3.2) BetVictor, 21/10 (3.1) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook

• Player to be Carded: Abdoulaye Doucoure @ 9/4 (3.25) Skybet, 21/10 (3.1) Bet365, BetVictor, 2/1 (3.0) William Hill, Betway, SpreadEx

I’ll be back next week, when the agenda will include our annual trip to Germany for the final day of the Bundesliga season…

Enjoy the football…

P.S
Want to get in touch? Email me at: oliver@acrosstheleagues.co.uk

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues