Wednesday 16th November 2022

In Across the Leagues today:

• Top Scorer stats…
• Our first bet of the tournament…
• Serge scores in splurges…

World Cup: The magic number – and a 50/1 shot…

When it comes to finding the Top Scorer at a World Cup, the magic number is six goals…

Six goals (or less) have been enough to land the prize in 10 of the last 11 World Cups.

Only once since 1978 has the winning Top Scorer total gone over six goals – with exactly 6.0 the average in the modern 32-team, 64-match format era, since 1998.

Here are the Top Scorer stats from the last six World Cups:

• Note: the FIFA Golden Boot Award goes to the top scoring player at the World Cup, decided by Most Assists in the event of a tie. Skybet’s market is called Golden Boot, and settled as such. All the other bookmakers listed in this article have the standard Top Goalscorer market (eg. paying out on a Dead Heat in the event of a tie)

As well as the ‘six-goal rule,’ a couple of other key factors stand out:

• 3 of the last 6 World Cup winning nations produced the Top Scorer (or joint-Top Scorer)

• 5 of the last 6 Golden Boot winners made it to the semi final stages. James Rodriguez & Colombia made the quarter finals in 2014

What are we looking for?

World Cup history says Golden Boot contenders need five goals at least, with six the average to take the prize.

Past results also show that Top Scorer is most likely to come from a team that reaches the semi finals or final.

A surprise winner isn’t out of the question – see Davor Suker for Croatia in 2006, or James Rodriguez for Colombia in 2014. But the player will likely need to come from a team that makes the quarter finals or beyond. That gives a player at least five games to get their goals (three games in the Group stage, then Round of 16 and Quarter Final…).

At the risk of stating the obvious, we are looking for attacking players – out-and-out strikers or attacking midfielders. Penalty takers and free kick takers are worth looking out for, too.

Top Scorer betting…

Here’s how the top of the World Cup 2022 Top Goalscorer market looks today, before a ball is kicked:

Source: Oddschecker, 16th Nov ‘22

40/1+ bar

• Standard Each Way terms: 1/4 odds 1-4 places 

Reasons to take on the favourites…

It’s hard to argue with the quality of the players at the top of that betting list. But as with yesterday’s point regarding not backing the favourites in the Group Winner market – I’m keen to note that it’s rarely as simple as taking the top names on paper…

Harry Kane and Kylian Mbappe are the joint-favourites for Qatar 2022, at around 8/1 each…

• Kane won the Golden Boot at Russia 2018. No player has ever won the award at two World Cups in a row

• Mbappe is one of France’s star names. France are the reigning champions. And as we noted yesterday: the holders have gone out in the Group stage at each of the last three World Cups

We can continue to pick holes and chip away at that list of top-scorer favourites…

• We all know how good Lionel Messi (Argentina) and Cristiano Ronaldo (Portugal) have been over the years. But both Messi and Ronaldo have never actually scored a goal at the Knockout stage of a World Cup

While we’re at it, another thing to consider before backing a short-price contender in this market is the ‘share the goals around’ factor:

• For example, as well as Mbappe up front, France have also got Karim Benzema and Antoine Griezmann – to name just two. Benzema is the current Ballon d’Or winner, and finished joint-3rd top-scorer at Euro 2020. Griezmann was joint-2nd top-scorer at the last World Cup 

There’s usually one…

Major International tournaments, namely the European Championships and the World Cup, often tend to produce a relatively unfancied player who makes his mark in the Golden Boot race…

With four Each Way places up for grabs (and bookies paying 1/4 odds for a place), it can certainly pay to keep an eye out for a lively outsider to get among the goals…

For example:

• At Euro 2020, Patrik Schick of the Czech Republic weighed in with 5 goals – putting him joint-top of the chart with Cristiano Ronaldo, who won the award by way of having provided more Assists. (Czech Republic made the quarter finals)

• At World Cup 2018, Denis Cheryshev of Russia finished joint-2nd with 4 goals. (Russia reached the quarter finals)

• At World Cup 2014, as noted above, James Rodriguez of Colombia won the Golden Boot with 6 goals. (Colombia were quarter-finalists)

• At World Cup 2010, Diego Forlan of Uruguay was joint-top scorer with 5 goals. (Uruguay reached the semi finals)

• At the World Cup 1998, as stated above, Davor Suker of Croatia won the Golden Boot with 6 goals. (Croatia made the semi finals)

Those examples give us plenty of reason to go after a big price Each Way shot or two at the World Cup 2022…

I’ve got one such big-odds contender for you today. And this guy doesn’t even play for one of the underdogs. In fact, he plays for a four-time World Cup winning nation…

Serge scores in splurges…

Serge Gnabry is a player I’ve recommended before at big prices in the Top Goalscorer markets…

At Euro 2020, the German forward went in the book at a top price of 50/1 Each Way, and 40/1 in general. That one didn’t work out that summer, with Serge failing to find the net (although he certainly had a few good chances).

This season, we’re on Gnabry as an Across the Leagues pre-season pick for top scorer in the German Bundesliga (read more here). That 16/1 & 14/1 Each Way wager is in good shape so far in the current 2022/23 domestic campaign, with the Bayern Munich man sitting on eight goals, just two off the three Each Way places in the Bundesliga.

One of the observations I made about Gnabry when putting him up as an outside chance at the Euros was his knack of scoring in splurges. At the time of writing in June 2021, Serge had scored two or more goals in the same game in seven of his previous 28 goalscoring appearances for club & country. As I stated back then, that kind of healthy brace & hat-trick habit can propel a player into contention in the top-scorer charts…

Back to the present day, and Gnabry has shown scoring prowess again in the build-up to the World Cup 2022:

• Gnabry was joint-top scorer for Germany in World Cup Qualifying, with 5 goals. Alongside midfielder (and penalty taker) Ilkay Gundogan. And injured striker Timo Werner, who misses out on the trip to Qatar

• Earlier this month, Gnabry scored a hat-trick for Bayern Munich. He signed off for International duty with 5 goals across his last 5 games

The German camp – under pressure to perform after poor showings at recent tournaments – has an abundance of attacking talent in its ranks. The aforementioned ‘share the goals around’ aspect could come in here. With the likes of the classy Kai Havertz, the tricky Leroy Sane, and super-talented youngster Jamal Musiala all worthy of respect – and worth looking out for on a match-by-match basis, too. Odds of 50/1 and 40/1 make Serge one to follow though…

Back to that scoring-in-splurges point, and Gnabry – even if used from the bench – is well capable of getting two of three goals in the Group stage, for example. A tally that would put him in the running, should the Germans progress to the Knockouts.

Germany are in Group E, alongside Spain, Costa Rica, and Japan. With Japan first up, Gnabry could hit the ground running.

And as I write this Wednesday afternoon, Germany are about to take part in a Friendly against Oman. If Serge features in that one and finds the net, a few more people might start talking about him as a contender.

Odds of 50/1 and 40/1 appeal, Each Way, for our first bet of the tournament. More selections will follow in the days to come – including in the Top Goalscorer market. But right now, let’s take the attractive prices for Serge Gnabry.

TODAY’S PICKS

World Cup 2022

Top Goalscorer – Each Way (1/4 odds 1-4 places):

• Serge Gnabry @ 50/1 Betfred, BetVictor, Betway, Ladbrokes, Coral, 40/1 Bet365, Boylesports, SpreadEx

Your exclusive DAILY World Cup service starts from Matchday 1, on Sunday afternoon. Before then, I’ll be in touch again this week with more pre-tournament stats, analysis & big-odds advice for you…

P.S
Want to get in touch? You can email me direct at:

oliver@acrosstheleagues.co.uk

Enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues