Thursday 28th July 2022

In Across the Leagues EXTRA today:

• Top Goalscorer stats and analysis…
• English Football League starts this weekend…
• First 2022/23 bets tomorrow…

Penalty-takers are worth their weight in gold…

The 2022/23 English Football League season starts this weekend. The Premier League follows a week after. Following on from this morning’s email, I’m sharing some more of my initial ante-post analysis with you today. Plus – look out TOMORROW for your chance to get your hands on our first Outright & Each Way bets for the new campaign.

Yesterday’s analysis focused on the link (or not) between teams winning the league, and the player that finishes as top scorer. Get the lowdown here.

Today, we’re continuing to dig in the season-by-season scorer stats…

Top Scorers and Penalties…

Here’s a key stat for you. I’ve been doing some number-crunching:

• Over the last 6 seasons, across the Championship, League One & League Two combined, 83% of the players that finished in the Each Way places in the Top Goalscorer markets scored at least one penalty during the campaign

A reliable penalty taker can be worth their weight in gold for a Top Goalscorer bet. The above statistic tells us that on average, five out of six players that finish in the top scorer places in the English Football League (EFL) have some or all of the penalty-taking responsibilities for their club. And that’s great to know, as it will help us whittle down the hundreds of potential candidates in the betting for the coming season.

Here are the penalty stats recorded by the highest-scoring men in the EFL, going back over the last half-a-dozen years. With these three divisions all getting underway this weekend…

Championship

Last 6 Seasons

TOP GOALSCORERS – top 4 scorers/ Each Way places:

Player (Club and League Position) – Goals – Penalties converted

Championship 2021/22:
Aleksandar Mitrovic (Fulham, 1st) – 43 goals – 6 pens out of 7
Dominic Solanke (Bournemouth, 2nd) – 29 goals – 4 pens out of 5
Ben Brereton-Diaz (Blackburn, 8th) – 22 goals – 4 pens out of 4
Andreas Wiemann (Bristol City, 17th) – 22 goals – 0 pens out of 0
Joel Piroe (Swansea, 15th) – 22 goals – 1 pen out of 1

Championship 2020/21:
Ivan Toney (Brentford, 3rd) – 31 goals – 9 pens out of 9
Adam Armstrong (Blackburn, 15th) – 28 goals – 5 pens out of 8
Teemu Pukki (Norwich, 1st) – 26 goals – 5 pens out of 7
Kieffer Moore (Cardiff, 8th) – 20 goals – 4 pens out of 4

Championship 2019/20:
Aleksandar Mitrovic (Fulham, 4th) – 26 goals – 4 pens out of 5
Ollie Watkins (Brentford, 3rd) – 25 goals – 0 pens out of 1
Lewis Grabban (N.Forest, 7th) – 20 goals – 4 pens out of 5
Karlan Grant (Huddersfield, 18th) – 19 goals – 6 pens out of 7

Championship 2018/19:
Teemu Pukki (Norwich, 1st) – 29 goals – 0 pens out of 1
Tammy Abraham (Aston Villa, 5th) – 25 goals – 5 pens out of 6
Neal Maupay (Brentford, 11th) – 25 goals – 3 pens out of 3
Dwight Gayle (West Brom, 4th) – 23 goals – 0 pens out of 0
Billy Sharp (Sheff Utd, 2nd) – 23 goals – 1 pen out of 2

Championship 2017/18:
Matej Vydra (Derby, 6th) – 21 goals – 6 pens out of 7
Lewis Grabban (A.Villa, 4th) – 20 goals – 4 pens out of 4
Leon Clarke (Sheff Utd, 10th) – 19 goals – 0 pens out of 0
Bobby Reid (Bristol City, 11th) – 19 goals – 3 pens out of 3

Championship 2016/17:
Chris Wood (Leeds, 7th) – 27 goals – 5 pens out of 5
Tammy Abraham (Bristol City, 17th) – 23 goals – 2 pens out of 2
Dwight Gayle (Newcastle, 1st) – 23 goals – 0 pens out of 1
Glenn Murray (Brighton, 2nd) – 23 goals – 4 pens out of 4

Those Championship numbers tell us that:

• Average team league finishing position for a 1st-place Top Scorer: 4th

• Average team league finishing position for a Top 4 Each Way place: 8th

Over the last six seasons in the Championship:

• 5 of the 6 Top Goalscorer winners scored 4+ penalties in a season

• 15 of the 26 placed top scorers converted 4+ penalties in a season

• 20 of the 26 players scored at least one penalty in a season, and only 3 players didn’t take any pens at all

• 13.4% of the total goals scored by the players listed above came from penalties (85 out of 633)

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League One

Last 6 Seasons

TOP GOALSCORERS – top 4 scorers/ Each Way places:

Player (Club and League Position) – Goals – Penalties converted

League One 2021/22:
Will Keane (Wigan, 1st) – 26 goals – 3 pens out of 3
Ross Stewart (Sunderland, 5th) – 24 goals – 4 pens out of 5
Alfie May (Cheltenham, 15th) – 23 goals – 1 pen out of 1
Cole Stockton (Morecambe, 19th) – 23 goals – 1 pen out of 2

League One 2020/21:
Jonson Clarke-Harris (Peterborough, 2nd) – 31 goals – 7 pens out of 10
Charlie Wyke (Sunderland, 4th) – 25 goals – 0 pens out of 0
Joe Pigott (AFC Wimbledon, 19th) – 20 goals – 5 pens out of 7
Jerry Yates (Blackpool, 3rd) – 20 goals – 6 pens out of 6

League One 2019/20 (shortened season):
Ivan Toney (Peterborough, 7th) – 24 goals – 2 pens out of 2
Armand Gnanduillet (Blackpool, 13th) – 15 goals – 4 pens out of 4
Ian Henderson (Rochdale, 18th) – 15 goals – 2 pens out of 2
Paddy Madden (Fleetwood, 6th) – 15 goals – 0 pens out of 0

League One 2018/19:
James Collins (Luton, 1st) – 25 goals – 6 pens out of 8
Tom Eaves (Gillingham, 13th) – 21 goals – 1 pen out of 4
John Marquis (Doncaster, 6th) – 21 goals – 2 pens out of 2
Lyle Taylor (Charlton, 3rd) – 21 goals – 8 pens out of 10

League One 2017/18:
Jack Marriott (Peterborough, 9th) – 27 goals – 1 pen out of 1
Brett Pitman (Portsmouth, 8th) – 23 goals – 4 pens out of 5
Will Grigg (Wigan, 1st) – 19 goals – 1 pen out of 1
Bradley Dack (Blackburn, 2nd) – 18 goals – 0 pens out of 0

League One 2016/17:
Billy Sharp (Sheff Utd, 1st) – 30 goals – 4 pens out of 6
James Vaughan (Bury, 19th) – 24 goals – 3 pens out of 3
Josh Morris (Scunthorpe, 3rd) – 19 goals – 4 pens out of 4
Lee Gregory (Millwall, 6th) – 17 goals – 8 pens out of 10

Those League One numbers tell us that:

• Average team league finishing position for a 1st-place Top Scorer: 4th

• Average team league finishing position for a Top 4 Each Way place: 8th

Over the last six seasons in League One:

• 3 of the 6 Top Goalscorer winners scored 4+ penalties in a season

• 11 of the 24 placed top scorers converted 4+ penalties in a season

• 21 of the 24 players scored at least one penalty in a season (the other 3 players didn’t take any pens)

• 14.6% of the total goals scored by the players listed above came from penalties (77 out of 526)

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League Two

Last 6 Seasons

TOP GOALSCORERS – top 4 scorers/ Each Way places:

Player (Club and League Position) – Goals – Penalties converted

League Two 2021/22:
Dominic Telford (Newport County, 11th) – 25 goals – 2 pens out of 2
Mathew Stevens (Forest Green, 1st) – 23 goals – 1 pen out of 1
Jamille Matt (Forest Green, 1st) – 19 goals – 3 pens out of 3
Harry McKirdy (Swindon, 6th) – 19 goals – 0 pens out of 0

League Two 2020/21:
Paul Mullin (Cambridge, 2nd) – 32 goals – 8 pens out of 11
Eoin Doyle (Bolton, 3rd) – 19 goals – 3 pens out of 3
Matt Jay (Exeter, 9th) – 18 goals – 4 pens out of 4
James Vaughan (Tranmere, 7th) – 18 goals – 5 pens out of 6

League Two 2019/20 (shortened season):
Eoin Doyle (Swindon, 1st) – 25 goals – 2 pens out of 2
Nicky Maynard (Mansfield, 21st) – 14 goals – 0 pens out of 1
Ryan Bowman (Exeter, 5th) – 13 goals – 1 pen out of 1
Ollie Palmer (Crawley, 13th) – 13 goals – 1 pen out of 1
Jerry Yates (Swindon, 1st) – 13 goals – 1 pen out of 1

League Two 2018/19:
James Norwood (Tranmere, 6th) – 29 goals – 1 pen out of 1
Tyler Walker (Mansfield, 4th) – 22 goals – 3 pens out of 3
Nicky Maynard (Bury, 2nd) – 20 goals – 0 pens out of 0
Kieran Agard (MK Dons, 3rd) – 20 goals – 4 pens out of 7

League Two 2017/18:
Billy Kee (Accrington, 1st) – 25 goals – 8 pens out of 9
Marc McNulty (Coventry, 6th) – 23 goals – 4 pens out of 4
Mohamed Eisa (Cheltenham, 17th) – 23 goals – 0 pens out of 0
Danny Hylton (Luton, 2nd) – 21 goals – 5 pens out of 6

League Two 2016/17:
John Akinde (Barnet, 15th) – 26 goals – 6 pens out of 8
John Marquis (Doncaster, 3rd) – 26 goals – 1 pen out of 3
Danny Hylton (Luton, 4th) – 21 goals – 4 pens out of 5
James Collins (Crawley, 19th) – 20 goals – 5 pens out of 5
Matt Godden (Stevenage, 10th) – 20 goals – 5 pens out of 5

Those League Two numbers tell us that:

• Average team league finishing position for a 1st-place Top Scorer: 6th

• Average team league finishing position for a Top 4 Each Way place: 7th

Over the last six seasons in League Two:

• 3 of the 7 Top Goalscorer winners scored 4+ penalties in a season

• 11 of the 26 placed top scorers converted 4+ penalties in a season

• 22 of the 26 players scored at least one penalty in a season, and only 3 didn’t take any pens at all

• 14.1% of the total goals scored by the players listed above came from penalties (77 out of 547)

The conclusion being: as alluded to in this morning’s League Winner/ Top Scorer research – the top-scoring player certainly doesn’t need to be on the team that ultimately wins the league. But we do want to be looking for someone who’s club is generally making a push for the playoff places – and a player that takes (and converts) penalties for their side.

First bets tomorrow – look out for your invite…

Those facts and figures will serve us well as we look to strike our first ante-post bets for the new 2022/23 season. I’ve got some players on my shortlist – and some big odds in the pipeline…

Tomorrow, Friday 29th July, I’ll be pulling the trigger with our first Top Goalscorer selections. These will be for Across the Leagues members only…

Look out tomorrow afternoon for your chance to get your hands on those first bets for the new campaign.

Keep an eye on your emails!

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues