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The Monday Report - the first reversal of the season...

Monday 30th November 2020

In Across the Leagues today:

  • 33/1 Doyle chopped in half…
  • Which bookie?
  • Champions League tomorrow…

The Monday Report – the first reversal of the season…

It’s finally happened. Ten rounds into the Premier League season, and we’ve seen the first Half Time/ Full Time turnaround of 2020/21…

Southampton v Man Utd was the game that produced it. The Saints were 2-0 up at half time, but the Red Devils pulled off the full scoreboard reversal. Winning 2-3 thanks to three second-half goals, with the decider coming deep into injury time.

In the Half Time/ Full Time (HT/ FT) betting, that HT Southampton/ FT Man Utd option topped out at 22/1.

United had been the pre-match favourites; in such circumstances, that turnaround is usually in that 20/1 region. When it’s vice versa, with the pre-match underdog to produce the HT/ FT comeback, the odds tend to push 33/1 and 40/1.

  • Our recent analysis showed that over the last 10 years in the Premier League, there has been an average of 15.8 such HT/ FT turnarounds per season, and never fewer than 10 in one given season. With just one recorded so far in 2020/21, that suggests there will be plenty more to come…

Chorley’s 66/1 FA Cup shocker…

At half time and in-play in Saturday’s FA Cup 2nd Round tie between Peterborough and Chorley, you’d have got any price you wanted for the away team to turn it around…

I’d gone for a confident Peterborough victory on the -2 Match Handicap. They made a bright start, with the League One side going 1-0 up after just two minutes.

But after that, non-league Chorley – some 89 places lower than Peterborough in the English football ladder – went on to deliver the shock of the round…

Chorley scored two second-half goals to pull off a famous 2-1 away win, and book their place in this evening’s 3rd Round draw.

In the pre-match betting, HT Peterborough/ FT Chorley was 66/1 with Bet365. It’s fair to say I didn’t see that one coming.

At match odds of 14/1, Chorley’s win was the biggest upset of the 2nd Round. There’s one tie left to play tonight, the all-non-league affair between Canvey Island and Boreham Wood.

James Tavernier scores AGAIN…

We’ve talked about James Tavernier a lot this season – and with good reason. The flying right-back scored yet again at the weekend…

Tavernier got the final goal in Rangers’ 4-0 win at Falkirk in the Scottish League Cup. That was the 29-year-old’s 14th goal of the season, from a total of just 23 appearances. Remarkable stuff.

And he’s no flash in the pan. In the 2018/19 campaign, Tavernier scored 17 goals for Rangers. We should very much keep the club captain, free kick & penalty taker on the betting radar…

  • Rangers’ upcoming fixtures: at home v Standard Liege in the Europa League this Thursday, then a run of three away games, starting at Ross County in the Scottish Premiership on Sunday

Doyle chopped in half…

The best betting ‘result’ of the weekend, as far as I’m concerned anyway, was Eoin Doyle scoring a brace for Bolton in League Two…

In the book at 33/1 Each Way for Top Goalscorer this season, Doyle has scored three goals in two games since we flagged him up.

The 32-year-old Irishman is now just one goal off the Top 4 (Each Way) positions in the League Two scorer chart, with two thirds of the season still to come…

Doyle’s 33/1 price has now been chopped to 16/1 (Bet365). While BetVictor are half of that again, with the Bolton striker now trading at just 8/1.

If he stays fit and in the starting line-up, then Doyle can give us a great run for our money this season.

  • Bolton’s next game is at home v Port Vale this coming Saturday 

Which bookie?

Across the Leagues member Giuseppe writes in to ask:

Across the Leagues member

The simple answer to Giuseppe’s question, Which bookies are best for Corners and Cards bets? – Bet365 and William Hill.

Those two firms offer stacks of markets for every game.

For example, a cursory glance at the Monday fixtures shows that Bet365 are offering 100+ markets for most games. Including, for tonight’s matches in the Premier League, FA Cup, Serie A in Italy, and La Liga in Spain:

Total Corners, Corners Match Bet (Team with Most Corners), Corner Handicap, Total Cards, and Card Handicap (Team with Most Cards).

William Hill have 200+ markets for all those matches. And over 400 for top-flight fixtures.

  • Other bookies with a big range of stats-bets markets each week include: Betway, Boylesports, Skybet, BetVictor, Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
  • As well as the perhaps less-familiar online names, such as: Marathonbet, 888 Sport & Unibet, NetBet & 10Bet, Sportingbet & Bwin

The Across the Leagues inbox has been doing some good business lately. You can get in touch with me, and get your football betting questions & thoughts out there to your fellow members, too, by emailing in at: oliver@acrosstheleagues.co.uk

Premier League pointers for tonight…

The weekend action concludes this evening, including two Premier League games on Monday Night Football on Sky Sports:

Leicester v Fulham – 5.30pm

West Ham v Aston Villa – 8pm

  • In the early kick-off, Leicester -1 Match Handicap is my pick from Friday’s weekend preview email
  • And in the 8pm game at West Ham, the 1-0 Correct Score featured in last week’s ATL EXTRA predictions email

In the Leicester game, I’d also be very pleased if Jamie Vardy was to add to his goal tally today…

In the book at 18/1 Each Way for Premier League Top Goalscorer this season (now down to 6/1), Vardy has found the net in seven out of 10 appearances in all competitions for the Foxes. He’s currently joint-3rd in the 2020/21 standings, two goals off the top spot.

The bookies are sweet on the Leicester striker today. Vardy is odds-on to score Anytime against Fulham, at 8/13 (1.62). And around just 9/4 (3.25) to score First.

Antonio ‘could’ be back in action…

Michael Antonio is due back from injury for West Ham, and the general (vague) consensus in the team news being reported online is that he ‘could’ be back in the starting XI tonight…

Taking no chances, the bookmakers have duly installed Antonio as the 5/1 favourite for First Goalscorer, just in case. And with his 2020 record in mind, it’s not hard to see why:

  • 6 of Antonio’s last 7 goalscoring performances for West Ham (across 12 games) have paid out him as the First Goalscorer

Scouting around various bookies and their Scorecast markets, the speculative combination of those two outcomes mentioned above – 1-0 West Ham & Antonio First Goalscorer – would pay a top price 33/1 with Betfred.

Champions League tomorrow…

That’s all from me for today. We have another exciting week lined up. Including Champions League action on Tuesday & Wednesday. With standout fixtures including Atletico Madrid v Bayern Munich, and Man Utd v PSG.

Plus, there’s a full midweek programme in the Championship, League One, and League Two.

I’ll see you tomorrow.

Enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues